Careful research on fast prediction markets.
We study short-horizon crypto markets on Polymarket. Every claim is pre-registered, graded against official settlement results, and checked by an independent verifier before we act on it.
- Founded 2026
- Research first
- Built with Claude
What we do
Brier Research is a one-person research company. We collect order-book prices, prices from several crypto exchanges, and official settlement results for markets that resolve every 5 to 60 minutes.
We use that data to test whether any trading approach beats these markets after fees. A small live trading system runs alongside the research, at minimum size and under strict risk limits.
How we work
Decided before we look
Each study's hypotheses and pass/fail bar are written down and frozen before any results are read.
Graded on official results
Every trade, real or simulated, is scored against the market's official settlement, never a proxy.
Independently verified
A separate verifier recomputes the key numbers from raw data and tries to break each finding.
Risk before return
Live trading runs at the smallest size the market allows, with daily loss limits and automatic halts on stale data.
What we've found
The short-horizon markets we study are efficiently priced. After fees, none of the strategies we tested beats breakeven with 95% confidence.
That is a useful result: it tells us where an edge does not exist, and it sets a high bar for anything we test next.
Built with Claude
Our research runs as multi-agent workflows on Claude: several analysts work a question in parallel, and an independent agent then tries to break their findings. Ten documented studies have used about 6.8 million tokens so far.